Strong Production and Storage Keep Prices Steady into Fall

The natural gas marketplace stayed relatively quiet throughout September and October of 2025. There was limited volatility due to strong storage and equally strong production which was able to absorb increases in LNG feed gas volumes. The October 2025 future settled below $3 coming in at $2.835. Temperatures were mild going through the month of October for most of the lower 48 and as LNG feed gas volumes continued to increase, we began to see the marketplace increase. While storage injections continued to be near analysts' estimates, the injections consistently were on the lower end of the 5-year average. 

Record LNG Exports and Colder Weather Push Pricing Higher

The daily average for LNG exports hit a fresh record in October of 2025, reaching 16.6 Bcf / day which was a significant increase compared to the daily average of 15.1 Bcf / day in September 2025. To put this in perspective, the September 2025 daily average represents a 24.5% increase compared to September 2024. Rising Global demand for LNG, and new facility capacity was the main driver for these increases. As the month of October came to a close and the colder weather settled into the key norther regions, LNG volumes continued to hit records. November 2025, with feed gas demand hitting 19 Bcf / day. This was up from October's strong record of 16.6 Bcf / day, and the main influence of the increase came from an increase in capacity at Venture Global's Plaquemines facility. 

Volatility Rises as Demand and Weather Drive Up Futures

Weather patterns turned cooler in most of the key demand regions of the lower 48 and one outlier that we saw was cooler than average temperatures in the Gulf Coast region. This drove the November 2025 future to settle at $3.376, up from the October 2025 settlement mentioned above which was $2.835. Surging demand coming from heating needs as well as LNG feed gas, combined with paltry injections, began to run the market in a volatile manner as the holiday season approached. New daily records for LNG feed gas became the norm in the last weeks of November 2025 and as the month came to a close, we saw a significant market occur for December 2025 future. December settled at $4.424, up considerably from the November settlement of $3.376. 

Strong Finish to 2025 Sets the Stage for Higher 2026 Market

Rising power burn demand coming from electrification, combined with the season's first storage withdrawal due to colder temperatures kept the marketplace in a zone of increasing volatility as well as pricing. This continued into December, and despite the lack of any major hurricane hitting infrastructure, the demand side story has become the main topic for the later months of 2025. The settlements of November and December 2025 brought the average for the Mercantile up to $3.427 for 2025, which is up significantly from the average of 2024 ($2.269). Forward demand coming online in the data center sector, continued electrification, and ever-increasing LNG export capacity has become the main story for 2026.  

Another main topic of discussion for the month of December 2025 has been the return of frigid early-winter temperatures in the northern states in key demand regions. Discussions of a polar vortex helped the marketplace march above $5.00, hitting new daily highs on the marketplace not seen in years. Storage withdrawals, LNG feed gas demand, and arctic temperatures in the lower 48 and Europe are the main story line going into the winter months, and it seems like this will continue unless we have a break to mild temperatures. The year 2025 has been one that has kept the market on its toes, and the strength of the market going into 2026 could be the underlying strength to see further increases in records for the upcoming year.