2024 Q1 Weather Forecast: Analyzing the Upcoming Winter Trends

November Overview and December Predictions

We finished November with cooler-than-average temperatures in the Northeast and a warm ridge over the central United States. While this is going to evolve over December, we’ll still see warmth over the middle section of the country more often than in other areas.

Long-Range Forecast Insights

There’s been a lot of chatter over the long-range forecast due to the ongoing warming in the equatorial Pacific, which is where we monitor sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to determine our status in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Based on SSTs, we are in a very strong El Niño cycle. However, another index, called the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI), calculates where the atmosphere is in the ENSO cycle based on multiple variables, including SSTs, surface pressure, outgoing radiation, and more. The MEI has been showing a weak El Niño or neutral status since the summer. Therefore, we have discrepancies in the global teleconnections to a level we haven’t seen before, and we must look at multiple indices to make conclusions for the winter forecast. For reference, the last very strong El Niño cycle, or Super Niño as it’s called, was in 2015-2016. This winter has minimal, if any, correlations so far to that winter.

January Forecast: A Shift to Colder Temperatures

Into the depths of the winter, we’ll begin to see colder air masses become more frequent and consistent in the Northeast, especially for January. A stratospheric warming event in early December sets the stage for several weeks of cold the following month. However, this is likely to include most of the country, not only the east, in seeing below-average temperatures in January.

February Outlook: Cold and Active Weather Patterns

Cold is likely to continue winning out in February, as the SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are expected to begin decreasing (while the MEI should begin to tick upwards) and align into somewhat more of a weak to moderate El Niño. This is an active pattern for the east with both snow and cold expected. Occasionally in this setup, we see more snow events in the Mid-Atlantic versus New England, like Winter 2009-2010, or the “Snowmaggedon” winter. Some upward movement in temperature is expected in the central and western parts of the country, but an overall cooler-than-average month is expected over more than half the country.

March Transition: Moderating Temperatures and Continued Volatility

While we don’t jump out of the winter feel for March, we’ll begin to see some moderation in temperatures for the east. Since we’re still in transition in the ENSO cycle, and we’re expected to get back into La Niña by the summer, the volatile pattern should continue through early Spring.

Navigating Energy Procurement and Sustainability Amidst Weather Changes

As weather patterns shift, impacting energy demands and costs, businesses face the dual challenge of efficient energy management and advancing sustainability. Freedom Energy specializes in providing strategic solutions that adapt to these fluctuations and emphasize environmental responsibility. Integrating renewable energy sources and optimizing energy procurement strategies, we help businesses balance cost-effectiveness with their commitment to sustainability. For expert guidance in aligning your energy needs with sustainability goals in a changing climate, contact Freedom Energy.

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