Production and Storage Levels

Production averaged 105 Bcf / day or higher as the dog days of summer continued. Storage injections have been consistently strong throughout summer and an incredibly quiet first half of hurricane season has kept Gulf infrastructure disruptions at zero for the first time in years.

As of May 30, Storage in the lower 48 totaled 2,598 Bcf. By the first week of July, storage totals crossed the 3,000 Bcf marker and while injections appeared to be minimal, production jumping above 106 Bcf / day began to outpace demand enabling storage volumes to report consistent growth.

Demand Drop and LNG Trends

Fast forward to August and early September and demand for power burn dropped off a cliff. LNG demand also crept down in late August as the European bloc’s storage is currently at roughly 78%. Late summer and early fall annual maintenance on pipelines as well as LNG export facilities also fed to the demand drop seen in the lower 48. As of September 5th, domestic storage is at 3,343 Bcf, which is well above the 5-year average. Current storage levels are 6% above the 5-year average, and only 1% lower when compared to the same week last year.

Record Production and Short-Term Market Outlook

In early September, production skyrocketed to 108 Bcf / day and mild temperatures across the lower 48 have led to market pricing easing. 108 Bcf / day of production is a 7.1% increase compared to the same time in 2024, and that has led to a bearish short-term market outlook.

As mentioned above, futures are currently 28% lower than they were in July of 2025. With the hurricane season roughly halfway through, the market is laser focused on late September and early October. This is the time of year when weather is typically mild, and we have little power burn demand associated with cooling.

Outlook for Storage and Withdrawal Season

Since the official start of withdrawal season is November 1st, there is plenty of time for storage levels to be topped off before the seasons flip. With production hitting new heights, and demand fading, we may see some record injections when compared to the 5-year average. The current deficit compared to the same weeks in 2024 is expected to become a surplus as we get closer to October.

Key Takeaways and Hurricane Watch

Overall, summer 2025 saw record heat and humidity, but strong production kept the bulls at bay. Ample storage, and weaker cooling demand played a big role in the storage story of summer 2025.

The last remaining question is what we will be seeing for hurricane season and will the Gulf infrastructure survive with little to no interruptions. Only time will tell as we approach November which is the official end of hurricane season.