With the summer behind us and the start of Fall on September 22, the potential for any days going forward that will be hot and humid enough to result in the Annual System Peak is very unlikely. That said, it looks like July 16 at hour ending 5-6 pm will hold as the peak, although ISO-NE hasn’t “officially” confirmed it yet.

ISO-NE’s Morning Report on July 17 indicated that peak demand on the 16th was 24,310 MW at hour ending 7 PM (6:00 – 7:00 PM). However, subsequent Weekly Market Summaries through September 15 indicate 24,366 MW at hour ending 6 PM (5:00 – 6:00 PM). Subsequent reconciliation of the data has resulted in a change in the expected peak hour, which has been more common in the past few years.

Through July 17, we sent 7 curtailment notices, with the first one on June 19, exceeding the number of notices sent in any year since 2009. July 17 was the second notice of three days in a row that week, and of the 7 days that curtailment was recommended, the 16th was the only day that demand reached or exceeded the projection. ISO-NE’s forecast of peak demand for the summer was very close to the actual peak based on normal weather.

ISO-NE’s Summer 2024 Expectations:

• Peak Demand Forecast – Typical Weather – 24,553 MW
• Peak Demand Forecast – Above Average Weather – 26,383 MW

As we have noted in prior articles, the addition of Behind-the-Meter (BTM) solar, expansion of utility curtailment programs, and more widely varying weather patterns are making it very difficult to predict when the Peak may occur. Last year saw the first-ever peak in September. Table 1 summarizes the curtailment notices sent this summer.

As indicated below in Table 2, annual electricity use has gradually declined over the past 20 years, but the annual system peak has remained relatively consistent. This summer saw the 4th lowest peak compared to the previous eight years as shown in Table 3.

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