As the third quarter of 2024 comes to a close, electricity and natural gas futures prices have continued to fluctuate. At the end of the first quarter, the electricity price for calendar year 2025 was trading at 6.0 cents per kWh, approximately where it was trading toward the end of January. By mid-July, it had increased to 6.58 cents, a high not seen since November 2023. Since mid-July, it has dropped 8 out of nine weeks, reaching a 6-month low of 5.8 cents. During that same period, the 2026 futures followed 2025 very closely. The same increase that occurred from mid-May to mid-July for the 2025 and 2026 futures did not translate to 2027. As of mid-September, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are trading fairly close, within a tenth of a cent per kWh.

Table 1 depicts electricity futures prices for calendar years 2025, 2026, and 2027 as of September 13, tracked from January 2020.

During the first three quarters of 2025, natural gas for calendar year 2025, despite week-to-week volatility, remained relatively level, trading between $3.40 per dekatherm to a high in mid-June of $3.59. Since mid-June, the 2025 natural gas futures have dropped 12 out of the past 14 weeks to $3.154. Unlike electricity, 2025 is trading at a considerable discount to 2026 and 2027, which are at $3.540.

Table 2 depicts natural gas futures prices for calendar years 2025, 2026, and 2027 as of September 13th, tracked from January 2020.

During the past two months, electricity prices generally tracked the downward trend of natural gas prices, dropping each week with the exception of a bump up in mid-August, as depicted in Table 3.

Temperatures throughout most of the country this summer were considerably higher than average, with many areas breaking records for both temperatures and extended durations of over 100 degrees. As a result, natural gas injections into storage were lower than expected, dropping storage levels below the 5-year maximum range.

Note: Electricity prices referenced here are energy-only and do not reflect a total electricity supply price that includes capacity, ancillaries, RECs, fuel security, etc. Additionally, natural gas prices referenced are NYMEX only and do not include basis and capacity costs.