The Winter of 2025 – 2026 experienced considerable volatility in the energy markets, with temperatures in New England below average resulting in the coldest winter (Dec-Feb) in 20 years.  As a result, natural gas spot market prices soared on the coldest days, going above $145 per dekatherm on Jan 28th.  Therefore, oil generation was the marginal fuel (the source that dictates the price for all generators) for several hours, where natural gas is predominately the marginal fuel in New England.  Total oil generation exceeded natural gas generation for 6 days, Jan 24th – Jan 28th and again on Feb 1st.  In comparison, in the past 9 years there were a total of 13 days (Dec 2017, Jan 2018 and Dec 2022) where that occurred. 

Adding further stress to wholesale market pricing, the Day-Ahead Ancillary Services Initiative prices (DASI) that became effective in March 2025 averaged close to 4 cents per kWh in January, reaching nearly 44 cents per kWh on Jan 27th.   

Spot Market Wholesale Electricity Prices

For the three-month period December 2025 – February 2026 real-time wholesale electricity prices averaged13.6 cents per kWh, 2.1 cents higher than last winter.  Although the below average temperatures persisted into March, we finally saw some relief with real-time prices averaging 4.9 cents. 

Table 1 depicts average monthly wholesale electricity prices for the past 5 years. (2025 through November 30th) 

Energy Price Trends Across 2027, 2028 and 2029

Futures prices for Calendar year 2027, 2028 and 2029 have been on a steady incline since mid-May 2025, with the exception of a drop in December and January.  On extended forecasts of colder weather for the second half of January and February, prices jumped in the third and fourth weeks of January then remained relatively level through February.

The start of the Iran war had an immediate impact to futures prices; the 2027 calendar year price jumped from 6.83 cents per kWh on February 27th to 7.43 cents on March 6, reaching 7.87 cents on March 27th, exceeding the previous high of 7.64 cents on Aug 22, 2022.

Most of the price increase was due to the spike in prices for Jan and Feb 2027. Calendar years 2028 and 2029 saw similar price trajectories but below the 2027 strip by approximately 2 cents and 1 cent respectively.  The futures electricity price for 2027 continues to stay well above 2027 and 2028 prices.

Table 2 depicts electricity futures prices for Calendar years 2027, 2028 and 2029 as of March 27th. 

Natural Gas

Although there was daily and weekly volatility over the three-month period Dec – Feb, futures prices as of Mar 27^th are trading close to where they were in Dec 2025.  2027, 2028 and 2029 natural gas futures did not experience the same significant increases that electricity futures saw as a result of the Iran war.  By contrast, the 2027 strip has dropped from $3.916 per dekatherm on Mar 6^th to $3.766 on March 27^th.

Table 3 depicts natural gas futures prices for Calendar years 2027, 2028 and 2029 as of March 27th. 

Although electricity prices in New England typically track natural gas prices, Table 4 depicts the sharp increase in the 2027 electricity futures price at the beginning of March 2026 as a result of the Iran war, with much less impact on natural gas futures. 

Natural Gas Storage

 Withdrawals of natural gas from storage continued as expected into the first week of March, with the first injection occurring week-ending March 13th.  Levels reached a low of 1,829 Bcf for year 2026 week ending March 20th as a result of a withdrawal after an injection the previous week. 

 Note: Electricity prices referenced here are energy-only and do not reflect a total electricity supply price that includes capacity, ancillaries, RECs, Fuel Security, etc.  Additionally, natural gas prices referenced are NYMEX only and do not include basis and capacity costs.