The natural gas market has stayed relatively quiet over the last few months, seeing further easing of pricing for the 12-month NYMEX strip. The main story of storage being robust both in the continental United States and in Europe has kept pricing at bay. There was minimal hurricane activity in the early hurricane season, and storms in the Gulf did not significantly impact supply. When looking at settlements, the August and September futures both settled below $2.00. August settled at $1.907, and September settled at $1.930. The average for the year currently sits at $2.15, and while storage injections have fallen short of expectations compared to last year’s, US storage levels are roughly 6% higher than levels in 2023.

Geopolitical Impacts and Weather Trends

There have been minimal impacts to the natural gas market on the geopolitical front, and tensions in the Middle East have had minimal effects on current gas pricing. Trading for the futures have stayed within technical bands over the course of July, August, and now into September. Weather patterns have played a hefty role in dictating which direction the market has been trading based on supply disruptions or demand disruptions as a result of tropical storms or hurricanes. So far, we’ve seen the trend of falling prices continue into September, but for the week ending 9/13, the market recorded back-to-back weekly gains. As the settlement for the October future approached, the market began to run on hurricane impact risk and expected demand due to weather changes. The October 2024 future had steadily stayed below the $2.40 ceiling, and the month closed at $2.59 The November future began trading in the last week of September and really put a good run up the first day it began trading. The November 2024 future is still holding below $3.00 as we head toward the heating season, increased demand will shift the focus of the November future into the winter futures. The winter futures are currently at $3.29, $3.56, and $3.44 for December 2024, January 2025, and February 2025.

Looking Ahead: Price Forecast and Key Factors

Natural Gas is on pace to average below $3.00 for 2024, and compared to 2023’s average at $2.73, we should see an average below the $2.73 number. Hurricane season isn’t quite finished as of yet, so the averages will rest on storm activity and weather patterns for the remainder of the year. Finally, the EIA called for natural gas to stay at current pricing levels through the end of the year, and the forecast is for pricing to increase in 2025. Additional LNG export capacity will be coming online between 2025 and 2028, and demand is expected to increase, placing daily production below daily demand.

Call to Action: Stay Informed on Natural Gas Market Trends

As the natural gas market evolves, it’s essential to stay informed. Contact Freedom Energy Logistics today for expert insights and tailored strategies to help you navigate these market shifts and meet your energy goals.