Freedom Energy Logisitics | September 2024 Newsletter

Ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season this year, there was quite a bit of chatter about the active tropical season ahead of us. While a slow start was anticipated, a ramp-up in activity was expected by August as La Niña conditions settled in. However, the incoming La Niña has been lackluster at best, and currently, does not even exist.

The latest ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) from June, July, and August (JJA) is 0.1°C, placing the United States squarely in a neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cycle. When we previously discussed the hurricane season and ENSO forecast in May, the expected ONI from the Climate Prediction Center for JJA 2024 was about -0.4°C, and therefore we’re running 0.5°C behind on the depth of La Niña. We were also expected to hit a peak La Niña of -1.1°C anomaly in November, December, and January (NDJ). In the August update, the peak depth of La Niña adjusted to -0.61°C for NDJ.

For the last week of September, the latest analysis of the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific shows we are approaching a weak La Niña phase, as the ONI (Niño 3.4) region hits -0.5°C for the first time. Conversely, all other regions remain neutral which signifies higher confidence in continued neutral conditions for the short term.

We’re past the official peak of hurricane season, and the 8th named storm, Helene, is impacting Florida this week. Tropical Storm Isaac is out to sea in the Atlantic, and there’s another storm to watch off the coast of Africa. Should that form, it would be storm #10, and the season, per the National Hurricane Center, was expected to have 17 to 24 named storms. However, ideal conditions for tropical storm development are rapidly diminishing as we enter autumn and temperatures begin to cool.

With the current projection of a neutral or extremely weak La Niña ENSO cycle, we can expect some tropical activity into the end of the season, but it’s likely going to be too little, too late. While a few storms may flourish in the second half of the season, we’re not getting into the depths of La Niña in time before SSTs begin to drop in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico or getting into the depths of a solid La Niña pattern in general.

It’s been some time since we’ve spent a winter in a neutral or very weak La Niña ENSO cycle. Coming out of a significant El Niño, it’s been over 30 years. The last winter we retreated out of a strong El Niño into a neutral or very weak La Niña was 1992-1993.